4Warn Weather – This kind of feels like a “Dear Diary” because we need to date this right out of the gate: It’s “Thursday morning, January 4, 2024…” and expect my later entries to vary like the emotions of a teenage love story.
Ok… OK… Let’s talk about next week.
A winter system will track into the Great Lakes on Tuesday and Wednesday. As advertised, this storm will have an impact on our region. What we can’t guarantee at this time is the exact track of that system. As of today, there is still a wide margin of where the rain/snow line will be and ultimately that determines our precipitation type.
Here is an analogy for you… If you play roulette and were going to place your bet on black or red (black being precipitation and red being dry), I would advise you to go *all in* on black. I’m that confident we will have inconvenient precipitation next week.
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However, if black represented snow and red was for rain, I would tell you to save your money and don’t bet yet. There is far too much uncertainty, and it would truly be a gamble.
The storm setup
Scientifically, this is a classic winter storm setup. And the way the jet stream is during the winter, Michigan finds itself in this situation often. If this low pressure tracks just 50 miles north or south, that could be the difference whether we get mostly rain, measurable snow, or a mixture of the two.
Some folks like to think meteorologists forecast by rolling dice. It might feel that way when we can’t give you specifics a week out, but you must keep in mind we are predicting the future with the data we have today.
So, with that said, the storm is still five days away with the low pressure currently over the Pacific Coast. Unfortunately, we can’t put the low pressure on autopilot and track its course to an exact T with so many atmospheric variables that take place along its journey to our region.
Think of it this way, if your commercial flight hit a pocket of turbulence, your pilot would likely correct the course a little. And with that, we must see how this upper-level Low reacts as it travels. Another good frame of thought, think of how we forecast hurricane tracks. We talk about the “cone of uncertainty” in which the eye of the storm could potentially hit anywhere within that cone/track. It’s really the same idea here.
So how much snow could we see in SE Michigan?
Some might think that sharing this data five days out is a little reckless, however I prefer to be transparent with you and let you in on my forecasting journey. It can be a wild ride sometimes, so why keep all the fun to myself? Not to mention, we all have weather apps on our phones that make us feel more meteorological, right?
In all seriousness, my thought is that the more information I give you, the better we all can be at understanding what is possible and prepare the best we can. I’m well aware that these scenarios could change a handful of times before next Tuesday. But here goes nothing:
Just by comparing these two different data plots that we have to work with, it’s clearly too early to lock into accumulation projections. One scenario gives us a dusting as rainfall cuts into the snowfall totals, whereas another scenario has more snow than rain leading to upward of 4 inches in the Metro with greater amounts to our northwest. Either way, this will not be the worst winter storm we have ever seen, but plan for inconvenient weather at the very least next week even if it is mostly rain.
The goal here is to show my hand to help you not fall for the hype on the internet while also letting you know that we are working diligently to fine tune this forecast with every new model run the closer we get to next week.
So, dust off your shovels (even if you don’t need it, it likely has dust), have an umbrella on-hand (just in case) and don’t stock up on the milk and bread quite yet.
Stay with your 4Warn Weather Team, we will keep you posted on everything you need to know.