4Warn Weather – For those of you that read my entry yesterday, welcome back! I promised you that forecasting can be a wild ride and this one is shaping up to be much like the Raptor at Cedar Point for all you roller coaster enthusiasts, so either put your hands up, hold on tight or take some Dramamine. You’ve been 4warned… (They pay me to say that).
---> Download the free 4Warn Weather app for live radar, weather alerts, storm tracking
As new data rolls in, I have a bit more confidence in how next week’s system could play out. However, notice I use the word “could.” That’s because the system still must work its way across the country. If you didn’t read my last entry, I will share this analogy again:
If you were on a commercial flight that hit a pocket of turbulence, your pilot would likely correct the course a little. And that is exactly what could happen a bit with this low-pressure system. As it travels across the U.S. making its way towards Texas before hooking northeast towards us, we must patiently watch how this upper-level Low reacts to atmospheric variables as it travels. A difference in miles is the difference between rain, snow, or a mixture of the two.
With that said, the two long range models that we look at are in better agreement with how the precipitation will be and I can’t help but to agree with this given the temperature profiles for that 48-hour window. I think the two curveballs will be the track of the storm and the gusty winds that will give us much cooler wind chill readings. Keep in mind, we could still get snow even if the air temperature is just above freezing. In this particular environment, I anticipate the snow that we do get will be a wet, heavy snow. I don’t want to sound any alarms, so don’t accuse me of trying to instill fear in the lovely folks of Metro Detroit. You are my people... I wouldn’t want to do that, but we did have a heavy snowfall last year that was paired with gusty winds that led to some power issues. I personally had a tree uproot from the weight of the snow and winds. I’m not saying THAT will happen, but I want you to be aware of the type of environment we could potentially be dealing with.
I digress… let’s get to the nitty gritty details as we know them to be as of right now, four days out.
It appears that we will start with snow showers before sunrise on Tuesday.
By late morning/midday, we could see a wintry mix as temperatures rise.
Highs will be around 40 on Tuesday, so it is highly likely we will see a changeover to rain throughout much of the afternoon. In fact, it looks like the rain could even be moderate to heavy at times through Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. This of course will wash away any snow accumulation we would pick up early Tuesday.
As temperatures start to fall, we will then see another changeover happen back to snow Wednesday morning. This is really what you want to keep your eye on.
The timing of that changeover will greatly dictate how much snow accumulation we get on the backend of the system Wednesday morning. Snow or even a rain/snow mix should taper off by Wednesday afternoon.
Here is the deal, I have seen too many of these fickle systems that call for rain and snow be a boom or bust. This is shaping up to be that, but what makes it hard to pinpoint is how that rain/snow line sets up (the track of the Low Pressure) and how the winds play a role in wind chill readings. As I look at Tuesday and Wednesday, air temperatures are in the mid-30s to 40 degrees for nearly that whole 48-hour window. I can already hear the naysayers out there… “I’ll believe snow when I see it.” Yea.. yea… yea… Allow me to let you in on a little secret…. In that same 48-hour window, the wind chills remain sub-freezing (25 to 30 degrees). Guess what? That’s the same wind whipping at 20-30 mph under bridges and overpasses.
Even if we don’t get much snow, I anticipate a slippery mess at times. It’s also a good time to remind folks that freezing rain is not actually frozen precipitation. It is liquid rain that freezes on contact with a frozen surface. So, there are far more variables to this storm system than whether you are shoveling snow or not.
With all that thrown at you, data still shows measurable snow. This is another comparison of long-range models and the projection of accumulation by late Wednesday.
I strongly believe you still can’t rely on this yet. I think it is hard for the data to completely grasp on how the rain will cut down on those amounts. Therefore, it’s still too wishy washy (literally and figuratively speaking) to lock into amounts. However, if the changeover happens early enough on Wednesday, I think we could safely pick up a couple of inches. But bringing it back to my “weather diary,” the wind chills will be the real twist in this love story.
That adds more complexity to an already fickle setup. Meanwhile, let’s grab a flower and start plucking the petals… instead of “he loves me… he loves me not…” I will stick with, “it’s going to snow… it might not.” Cue the jokes about meteorologists guessing for a living. If I only had a dollar for every time I heard one of those… 😉 Enjoy your weekend everyone and expect several more adjustments to this forecast over the weekend into early next week!
Stay with your 4Warn Weather Team, we will keep you posted on everything you need to know.