DETROIT – The first major winter storm is on track to hit Metro Detroit next week.
As of right now, we expect winter weather to develop overnight Monday night into early Tuesday morning as snow. The clouds will stick around Tuesday through Thursday.
The track of the low-pressure center that will bring this storm to the region will dictate most things in terms of precipitation type for most of this event.
As of right now, this low-pressure center will work directly over Southeastern Michigan, which will draw in some warmer air, changing the snow over to rain showers as we work through Tuesday afternoon, and into Tuesday evening.
It does look like there would be a decent amount of rain possible after the changeover from snow to rain. High temperatures heading out of the 30s, into the lower 40s by Tuesday afternoon.
Then, as colder air works back into the region after that low-pressure center works off to the northeast, the rain will change back over to snow Tuesday night into early Wednesday, and we will keep the chance of snow in the forecast on Wednesday. High temperature is dropping back into the upper 30s by Wednesday afternoon.
It’s also going to be rather breezy as we work throughout the middle of the week with the system as well, when gusting to at least 35 mph can be expected, which also adds another part of this winter storm. We are going to be keeping an eye on this as wind advisories may be needed to go along with this system into the middle of next week.
How much snow will we get?
It is too early to talk about snow accumulation totals for this event on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The forecast data will need to come into better agreement over the next day or so as the low-pressure center that we will be watching will be making its way on shore of the western United States. Stay tuned for later updates throughout the weekend, and into early on Monday morning.
There are a few other things I am watching for as well as the data comes into better agreement by the end of the weekend and into early next week:
- Could a Flash Freeze be possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday Morning? While we transition over to rain on Tuesday afternoon/evening, the colder air moves in behind the low-pressure system, if temperatures drop fast enough Tuesday night into the overnight as we transition back to snow, the roads will be wet from the rain we would have seen for part of the day, that would allow things to ice up pretty fast before the snow falls once again on Wednesday morning.
- Could there be some flooding concerns? Keep in mind, we’ve been in the 30s and below freezing for while now this week, and if we start out as snow, and then change to rain, this system will have plenty of moisture to work with. The ground will be at least partially frozen, so could an excess of rainfall runoff the ground and cause some flooding concerns? We need to see how things play out as the data comes into better agreement tonight and Sunday morning.
Breaking down the forecast
So, here’s my breakdown of what we are looking for as of Saturday Morning:
Monday Overnight-Tuesday Morning: Snow develops and overspreads the region, there is the potential for an accumulation
Tuesday Lunchtime-Tuesday Afternoon: Snow changes over to rain for a good portion of the region as warm air surges northward
Tuesday Late Night-Early Wednesday Morning: Rain changes back over to snow, there is the potential for an accumulation if the colder air moves in fast enough behind the low-pressure center.
As of this morning, the low-pressure center is just coming onshore of the Pacific Northwest, so the weather balloons we put up into the atmosphere will give us some much-needed data into the forecasts and help us fine tune where the low-pressure center will move to, which will ultimately tell us what precipitation types we will see.