4Warn Weather – Cue up my weather diary archives, we knew this first system was going to be boom or bust. While some rejoiced that we dodged the snow, others not so much. And before you crack a joke that this upcoming weekend will be a swing and a miss, you might want to hear me out. This forecast is “snow” joke.
We knew that temperatures were likely going to be above freezing with this last system, which was certainly the case. So really, it shouldn’t have been a huge curveball that the rain won out. An arctic airmass will be working its way into Southeast Michigan by the end of the week. With falling temperatures forecasted, I think this next system holds much more promise to throw you more of a “snowball.”
Here is the deal…
A weak clipper system brings a chance of light accumulating snow Thursday morning. We are talking around an inch to some spotty areas getting two inches at most. It will be just enough to create a slick morning drive on Thursday, but with temperatures around 30 degrees, I think salt will be very effective on treated roads, so this isn’t the one to get too worked up about.
A major winter storm will work its way into our region late Friday afternoon through Saturday with heavy snow expected. Although there are still some discrepancies on how much rain will mix in, this is what we are looking at:
TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
This system will draw in some warmth Friday night, but it appears that the window for the warm sector will be limited. This means we could see a bit of a mix or snow at the onset with a quick changeover to rain, but as temperatures slide Friday night, there will be a changeover to all snow and that snow will begin to stack up on Saturday. In other words, temperatures will rapidly fall as we get closer to sunrise on Saturday resulting in several inches of accumulation on the back edge of this system.
EARLY SNOWFALL PROJECTIONS
Here is a comparison of two scenarios. Scenario one has much more rain mixing in, while scenario two keeps the window of rain very brief. This second scenario seems to be the most consistent over the last couple of days and jives with the temperatures forecasted.
Therefore, by crunching data from both models, I think it is safe to say that preliminary projections (more than 48 hours out of the onset) lean more towards scenario two ranging from 3 to 6 inches across the Metro area and south with 4 to 8 inches across our north and northwestern suburbs.
Of course, there will be fine-tuning as we get closer. We would be negligent to think it will stay this exact same way more than two days out. But at this point, we do have a decent grasp on there being measurable snow. What hasn’t garnered the attention it deserves are the strong wind gusts that are expected. These gusts could be greater than 45 mph on Saturday. This is important for several reasons. The first one, if we get heavy snow paired with whipping winds, I will worry about some possible power outages. The other concern will be visibility issues on the roads. Scattered lake effect snow with additional accumulations will remain possible through Sunday.
So, the timing of this winter storm won’t keep kids out of school on Friday (sorry kids), but what could give them a “snow day” is the arctic air that builds in next week. Monday is a holiday but keep your eye on Tuesday. We will wake up to lows possibly below 0 on Tuesday with single digit highs and wind chills 10 degrees below zero.
That is not good news for kids who walk to school or those who stand at the bus stop, so the temperatures could lead districts to call off. Telling you to “bundle up” doesn’t even feel right. I feel like I need to text you the meme of a guy in the frozen tundra with icicles in his hair and teeth chattering… then maybe it would feel like I properly explained just how cold it will feel. We are Michiganders though, bring it on! ((Insert groan while all the snowbirds laugh at us.))