4Warn Weather – A very strong El Nino is at least partially responsible for the warmest winter on record in Michigan this past year.
There is growing certainty that the current El Nino ocean condition is fading and being replaced by La Nina.
What does that mean for summer in Michigan?
If we look to the past, it could spell a very warm, humid season.
Let’s get back to the basics of the difference between El Nino and La Nina. El Nino is when the equatorial Pacific Ocean water becomes warmer than the long-term average. La Nina represents cooler than normal Pacific Ocean water at the equator.
The large area of water that is either warmer or colder than normal influences the upper-air flow around the Northern Hemisphere. So the effects are mostly felt in the winter. But a strong El Nino like we have now, being quickly replaced by La Nina, will likely have some effects in the summer as well.
NOAA experts are finding cooler water just under the surface. Once this cooler water works its way to the surface, it is expected to quickly replace the warm water. Meaning we will flip from an El Nino to a La Nina. This has only happened 6 times since 1950.
Going back to the data from those times, Michigan summers have been warmer than average. Precipitation has been a bit more unpredictable, but overall, it looks to be above average. This means the flip from El Nino to La Nina will likely bring a hot, humid, and wet summer.
This could also prove to be a gardener’s dream with fast growing green grass, less watering, and a great environment for plants and flowers that enjoy the heat. Keep in mind this is not a day-to-day forecast. This is an average of the overall summer.
Here is a look at the summer outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for June through August.