4Warn Weather – Michigan could see severe weather, including an isolated tornado, on Tuesday.
The Severe Weather Prediction Center has most of the Lower Peninsula, including Metro Detroit, in the “marginal” risk category for severe storms on Tuesday.
Areas in the “marginal” risk zone include Wayne, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw, Monroe, Lenawee, Livingston and Ingham counties. Cities include Kalamazoo, Grand Rapids, Holland, Flint, Jackson, and Battle Creek.
Communities closer to the Michigan-Ohio border are listed in the “slight” risk category, the second highest on a scale of five categories.
The rest of the state is still expected to see stormy weather, but not reaching severe status. This could change with updates models on Tuesday.
The areas in “marginal” territory are also listed with a 2% chance for an isolated tornado. Areas closer to the Michigan-Ohio border have an increased risk.
Large hail and damaging winds are also possible with any severe storms.
---> Track weather updates and radar here
Here’s what to expect in Southeast Michigan
4Warn Weather’s Ashlee Baracy reports: We will begin with sunshine on Tuesday. Then, clouds will build in during the afternoon ahead of showers and possible thunderstorms in the evening.
Generally, cities southwest of a line from Flint to Detroit will be at a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms Tuesday. A warm front will lift through the region, creating instability that may lead to severe storms.
Showers may reach us around 6 p.m., though more widespread rain and potential storms are expected at 7 p.m.
The severe storms could bring damaging wind, large hail, flooding, and an isolated weak tornado. We’re not guaranteed to see each or all of these threats, but the ingredients will be there for a low-end chance for seeing any of those threats.
---> More: Severe storms possible this week in Metro Detroit: What to know
Explaining severe weather risk levels
Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High risks represent progressively larger threats for organized severe storm episodes. Here’s a breakdown:
Thunderstorms (light green) - General or non-severe thunderstorms - Delineates, to the right of a line, where a 10% or greater probability of thunderstorms is forecast during the valid period.
1-Marginal (dark green) - Marginal risk - An area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity.
2-Slight (yellow) - Slight risk - An area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity.
3-Enhanced (orange) - Enhanced risk - An area of greater (relative to Slight risk) severe storm coverage with varying levels of intensity.
4-Moderate (red) - Moderate risk - An area where widespread severe weather with several tornadoes and/or numerous severe thunderstorms is likely, some of which should be intense. This risk is usually reserved for days with several supercells producing intense tornadoes and/or very large hail, or an intense squall line with widespread damaging winds.
5-High (magenta) - High risk - An area where a severe weather outbreak is expected from either numerous intense and long-tracked tornadoes or a long-lived derecho-producing thunderstorm complex that produces hurricane-force wind gusts and widespread damage. This risk is reserved for when high confidence exists in widespread coverage of severe weather with embedded instances of extreme severe (i.e., violent tornadoes or very damaging convective wind events).
---> Related: Watches, warnings, risks: Understanding Michigan’s severe weather alert terms