Michigan severe weather forecast: When to expect storms, biggest threats

Nearly all of Michigan could see severe weather on Tuesday, including Metro Detroit.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire Lower Peninsula in the “slight” risk category for severe storms on Tuesday, the second highest on a scale of five levels. Most of the Upper Peninsula is under a “marginal” risk, the lowest on the scale.

Much of the Lower Peninsula is also listed with a 2% chance for an isolated tornado.

Here’s what to expect by area of Michigan:

Severe weather in Metro Detroit

Here’s the latest from 4Warn Weather’s Ashlee Baracy: A heat advisory is in effect until 10PM today for most of Southeast Michigan for heat indices around 100 degrees. Actual temperatures were expected to climb into the low to mid-90s, the earlier rain and lingering clouds have had temperatures under achieving a bit this morning, but if some sunshine can work its way in now that this first round of showers and storms has pushed out, we should see a decent rise in temperatures throughout the afternoon.

There is a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather later this afternoon and evening. Confidence remains low regarding timing and evolution of any thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening, as there will be multiple factors for possible thunderstorm development.

The overall timeframe is generally 2PM to Midnight, but model data has a better grasp of these developing after sunset. Any storms observed may become strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts and hail to an inch or greater as the main severe weather threats. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Severe weather in West Michigan

From the NWS in Grand Rapids: Storms this morning are weakening, and will continue to do so. Additional storms are likely today, with the best chance after dark tonight. Some large hail and gusty winds will be the main threats along with locally heavy rain.

Severe weather in Northern Lower Michigan

From NWS in Gaylord: Following this morning’s showers and storms, we will slowly clear out with a very humid feel through the day.

While storms may not blossom overhead, we will have to monitor trends for any redeveloping storms over Wisconsin later this afternoon as they move toward northern Michigan.

Any storms that do form this evening may contain damaging winds, some hail, and while unlikely, a tornado is possible.

Severe weather in Michigan Upper Peninsula