As Michiganders, we often joke that we have two seasons: winter and construction. And now it feels like even construction lasts year round.
But this year, it might really feel like we will skip over fall. Born and raised here, I know that we are not strangers to blinking and missing spring or fall. These seasons rarely seem to live up to our expectations.
Maybe this can be linked to Climate Change, but maybe not. What I can tell you is that climate data is at least hinting that this fall might be more of a quick fling, so don’t catch strong feelings.
After coming off a rather mild winter and a warmer than average spring, the switch from winter to summer gave us all the things we typically enjoy about spring. It was a bit more gradual of a transition and didn’t feel like a flip of a light switch, per se.
Now, as we look ahead to the start of fall on Sunday, Sept. 22, it’s worth mentioning that September has kept that above average warmth around.
As of Sept. 17, our average daily high temperature for the month was 78.6 degrees, and that’s likely to trend upward with more 80s in the forecast as we close out the month. According to climate data, our average high in September should be 74.4 degrees. As of this writing, that’s more than 4 degrees above normal. This stretch of low 80s we’ve been in is more on par with our typical monthly average high for August: 81.4 degrees.
The Climate Prediction Center puts out long-range outlooks for patterns that we can expect from temperatures to precipitation. The overarching theme through the end of the month looks to be above average warmth, and the same goes for meteorological fall, which takes us through November. This, of course, doesn’t account for each individual day forecasted, as opposed to an average weekly, monthly, and seasonal trend.
So with all this said, the extended warmth and unseasonably dry spell will likely lead to delayed and muted fall colors. You need the cool, crisp nights for the vibrant colors to arrive.
By the time we feel that shift, most of the leaves could be crisp, brown, and on the ground. And it could be quite possible that by the time you feel ready to order the pumpkin spice latte, you might as well order the peppermint mocha instead.
With a shift to La Nina, the jet stream could bring us average, more seasonal temperatures, but above average precipitation, meaning you might be sipping that coffee with snow falling outside your window.
There is no guarantee that we will blink and miss it, but for all the fall lovers like me, here’s to next year and a longer relationship with the season we know and love.