TAMPA BAY, Fla. – Is it luck or legend? Locals in Tampa Bay believe their city is protected from direct hurricane hits by a supernatural force.
As of of 11 a.m. Wednesday, Hurricane Milton’s track continued to shift a bit south, with landfall somewhere around Sarasota rather than the Tampa Bay area, as earlier models showed.
That would spare St. Pete and Clearwater the 10-15 foot surge, although an 8-foot surge would still be possible. And a slight wobble to the north at landfall could still put the eyewall over the Tampa area -- something that hasn’t happened in over 100 years.
So far, Tampa has dodged major hurricanes in 2024, 2022, 2017, and 2004. While this may surprise meteorologists, locals say they know exactly why hurricanes seem to veer off last minute. And it has nothing to do with weather and everything to do with the supernatural.
How I learned about this legend
In September 2022, I was sent to Florida to cover Hurricane Ian. When I arrived, all computer models indicated a direct hit in the Tampa Bay area.
My photographer, Nate, and I headed over to St. Pete, where there was a mandatory evacuation order in preparation for what was to be a devastating hurricane.
While it was eerily quiet, we found a dive bar that was filled with local residents. They all laughed when we walked in and said, “You know we aren’t going to get hit right?”
My 25 years as a meteorologist couldn’t prepare me for the story I was about to hear.
Background story
For centuries, the Tocobaga tribe inhabited the coastline of Tampa Bay, surviving on a diet of mostly fish and shellfish. The tribe began dying off due to war and disease and were mostly wiped out before 1800.
Large burial mounds from the Tocobaga civilization remain today, with the oldest one overlooking Old Tampa Bay. Locals believe the mounds provide supernatural protection from hurricanes.
The only hurricane to come close to making a direct hit on Tampa was Hurricane Irma in 2017. The hurricane went from a Category 5 to a Category 1 before landfall, and St. Pete, where the mounds are located, was spared.
Ian missed, but will Milton?
After hearing this tale, I left thinking they were either crazy or drunk -- possibly both. Every computer model had hurricane Ian taking direct aim, and the surge would not be survivable.
We headed back to our Tampa hotel to start preparing for our coverage the next morning. I checked the models at 11 p.m. and everything changed.
Ian had suddenly turned and was now headed towards Fort Myers. As we packed up our gear and left the Tampa area and headed south, I thought about the Tocobaga tribe and the folks in the bar who were probably having a good laugh at my expense.
I’m also hoping they didn’t take the same chance with Hurricane Milton. Though it does appear landfall will be south of St. Pete, a slight, last-minute wobble north could destroy the mounds and the legend of the Tocobaga Tribe.