The National Weather Service released Southeast Michigan’s 2024-25 winter outlook on Thursday.
The transition from El Niño to La Niña is happening very late this year. It’s only been this late four times since 1950. This is important because typically, when it transitions this late it’s a much weaker La Niña.
What are El Niño and La Niña? They are opposing climate patterns that involve changes in wind and ocean temperatures in the Pacific. La Niña is the cool phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.
The weather prediction center has Southeast Michigan’s temperatures being slightly above average from December through February. We’ll also be above average for precipitation. They don’t outlook for snow vs. rain, so above average precipitation doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll have more snow -- it could mean more rain and ice.
Breaking it down in baseball terms
When the National Weather Service released the winter outlook, that was the equivalent of the first pitch being thrown.
El Niño still at the plate with two outs, La Niña getting ready in the hole. Mother Nature is on the mound ready to throw curveballs at Metro Detroit Sandy Koufax style. The game is a triple header running in December, January, and February.
Now, if you’re not a baseball fan, understanding the players might help you figure out how this winter game will go.
El Niño typically hits warmer and drier in the winter. La Niña is known for some pretty cold and snowy grand slams. But this year, La Niña is late to the game and pretty weak. Think Punch and Judy hitter.
At this point, you’re either amused or confused, and I appreciate your indulging me in either case. But since I’m a better broadcaster than ballplayer, let’s get down to the business of the upcoming winter season.
What to expect this upcoming winter season
The National Weather Service predicts slightly above average temperatures for the eastern part of the state and above-average precipitation for all of Michigan this winter.
La Niña was expected to arrive late last winter, but El Niño decided to stick around a little longer. The result was the warmest winter on record in the continental U.S. and worldwide.
So you would think La Niña would do the opposite and bring cold weather, right? Remember those curveballs I mentioned earlier? Here’s where it gets tricky.
Only four La Niña episodes since 1950 have formed this late in the year, and all of those were pretty weak. This La Niña is also expected to be weak, so we might not see the typical impacts.
Strong La Niñas are associated with consistent weather throughout the season but a weaker event means other climate phenomena could throw us a few benders.
That could mean cold and mild outbreaks. While the forecast is not a snowfall outlook, if above-average precipitation occurs during a mild spell, it could mean heavy rain or freezing rain.
If it happens during a cold snap, ski resorts might get the winter they have been dreaming of for years.
Grab your foam fingers, folks. This is going to be one heck of a winter season.
---> La Nina could soon arrive. Here’s what that means for winter weather