Groundhog Day is Sunday, Feb. 2. It is a time to celebrate and amusingly seek forecast guidance from one of our favorite rodents.
The folklore of the groundhog, or woodchuck, has origins in ancient European tradition and gained traction in the Pennsylvania Dutch community.
The first Groundhog Day was held on Feb. 2, 1886, in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, and prominent groundhog prognosticator Punxsutawney Phil became a legend.
Based on the superstition, winter will last an additional six weeks if the groundhog emerges from its den, sees its shadow and retreats. If the groundhog does not see its shadow, spring will supposedly arrive early.
What is Phil’s track record for predictions?
Phil turned out to be right after predicting early springlike conditions in 2024. That year, the contiguous United States had its third warmest February in 130 years of recordkeeping. March was also warmer than normal.
Speaking of “normal,” the groundhog normally misses. Maybe Phil just likes to play with our emotions.
Phil has gotten the forecasts right about 30 percent of the time over the past decade when comparing them to national temperatures, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Can’t trust that out-of-towner Phil?
Woody the Woodchuck is local and lives at the Howell Nature Center.
In fairness, conditions will vary across the country.
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center is calling for February to deliver below-normal temperatures to the northwest and Upper Midwest and above-normal temperatures to the south and northeast. Michigan is expected to average near-normal temperatures for the month. The three-month outlook, which includes February through April, shows similar trends.
Michigan 3-month weather outlook: Projected temperature, precipitation trends
So, what is the prediction for Punxsutawney Phil’s prediction?
The skies over Punxsutawney, about 80 miles northeast of Downtown Pittsburgh, will be mostly cloudy on Sunday morning. This would lower the chances of Phil seeing its shadow, but there is a secret wrench tossed into this scenario.
Phil’s answer is not simply based on “retreating” to its den or not. Phil must “speak” to its handler in Groundhogese, and the handler will “translate” the answer. Maybe it is the handler who is playing with our emotions.
