DETROIT – Last week, I explained in great detail how I evaluate and use the computer models to forecast a major storm in advance.
I am happy to report today that my model choices worked out very well: Everything still appears on target for a path from roughly Chicago to Alpena, which keeps southeast Michigan on the storm’s warmer side.
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Here’s my timeline:
After a partly cloudy night tonight, with lows near 30° (-1° Celsius for our Canadian friends across the river), Tuesday will start out dry -- and perhaps with some morning sunshine before clouds increase. As you can see below on my high resolution RPM output for 5 p.m. Tuesday, rain is moving into western Michigan, with a few sporadic showers farther east. I think many of us may even get home from work mostly dry -- a dry evening rush hour would be a huge positive.
Meanwhile, heavy snow is moving into northern Michigan. Highs Tuesday in the mid 40s (7° Celsius), with a developing east wind at 10 to 20 mph. You know what I always say: “an east wind is an ill wind,” because that usually means that low pressure is approaching from the south or southwest. Tuesday’s sunrise is at 7:46 a.m., and Tuesday’s sunset is at 5:48 p.m.
By 8:00 PM Tuesday evening, rain has rapidly increased across southern Michigan, with a few rumbles of thunder even possible! Up north, very heavy snow is falling. If you or anybody you know is planning on traveling up north late Tuesday, I strongly advise against it. As for temperatures, once the rain starts our temp may drop a couple of degrees, but warm air surging in should push temps into the upper 40s (9° Celsius) by late evening!
By 3:00 AM Wednesday, most of the precipitation has moved out of the state. For us, the cold front itself will be either crossing the area, or knocking on the door. The Wednesday morning rush hour should be dry…how great it would be if we can squeeze this big rain system in between the two rush hours! In fact, skies may even become partly cloudy once the front clears the area.
Here is the ECMWF model output showing where the heavy stripe of snow will fall. This will be quite a storm for those on the system’s colder side…with near blizzard conditions in some areas as the heavy snow combines with strong wind.
Temperatures on Wednesday are going to be tricky because of the potential for some sunshine during the first half of the day, which will offset (at least initially) the cold air coming in behind the cold front. We’ll probably start the day in the mid 40s (7° Celsius), possibly rise into the upper 40s (8-9° Celsius) by midday, and then see temperatures fall into the upper 30s (5° Celsius) by late Wednesday afternoon or evening as the wind picks up. Snow showers are also possible late Wednesday.
The rest of the forecast is much simpler. Look for partly cloudy skies on Thursday and Friday, with highs in the low 30s (0° Celsius) on Thursday, and in the mid 30s (2° Celsius) on Friday.
Our coldest morning of the week will be Friday morning, when temperatures could dip into the upper teens (-7° Celsius) for some of us away from the big cities.