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Metro Detroit weather forecast: Honing in on our severe weather threat

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Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving eastward across southern lower Michigan will cross our area late this afternoon and early evening…mainly south of M-59.  As of the time I’m writing this article, there has been no severe weather reported.  Technically, we are under a marginal risk for severe weather but, right now, I’m not seeing any intensification of the storms.  Keep an eye on your Local4Casters app’s radar this afternoon to monitor the storm’s progress.  Of course, I’ll let you know on Twitter (@PGLocal4 and @Local4Casters) if any warnings are issued, and Ben Bailey will have the very latest on Local 4 News First at 4, and at 5 and 6 (if you’re at work, remember that you can watch our newscasts live on ClickOnDetroit.com.  These storms are ahead of a cold front that will slowly sink southward through our area.

Once the afternoon showers and storms move out, we’ll quiet down for a while behind the cold front, until it stalls and starts moving back to the north as a warm front.  This should happen late tonight, and will usher in more showers and thunderstorms.  I do not expect any severe weather from the late-night batch of storms.  Lows in the low 50s (11 degrees Celsius).  Wind becoming northeast at 5 to 10 mph.

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Any showers and storms around first thing Thursday morning will end, and we’ll be quiet until early to mid-afternoon when more storms erupt ahead of the final cold front from this system.  I think these storms bring our best chance of severe weather, with large hail and damaging winds being the primary threats, but even an isolated tornado is possible.  Naturally, as with any potential severe weather situation, tomorrow morning’s upper air data will give us the information necessary to make a determination about how widespread the severe storm chance is, and what the main threats are.  I will let you know the latest Thursday morning on Local 4 News Today, so join us when you wake up.  Highs Thursday should reach the low to mid 70s (22-23 degrees Celsius).  Southwest wind at 15 to 25 mph.

Here’s how our in-house RPM model is projecting things over the next day:

Thursday’s sunrise is at 6:44 a.m., and Thursday’s sunset is at 8:21 p.m.

Becoming partly cloudy Thursday night, with lows in the mid 40s (8 degrees Celsius).

Mostly cloudy, breezy and colder on Friday, with highs in the mid 50s (13 degrees Celsius).

Partly cloudy Friday night, with lows in the upper 30s (4 degrees Celsius).

Partly to mostly cloudy on Saturday, with highs in the mid 50s (13 degrees Celsius).

Becoming mostly clear later Saturday night, with lows near 40 degrees (4 to 5 degrees Celsius).

Mostly sunny on Sunday, with highs in the low 60s (16 degrees Celsius).

Mostly sunny on Monday, with highs in the mid 50s (13 degrees Celsius).

There’s a chance of showers developing by Tuesday afternoon, with highs in the mid 60s (17 degrees Celsius).

Then we start another warm-up, with highs back into the 70s Wednesday through Friday, although shower and thunderstorms chances return by Thursday.