DETROIT – If you are one of those people who doesn't like winter, then you know that we've been living large for the past month.
From Dec. 12 through Tuesday, every single day has had above average temperatures and almost no snow. Whenever that happens, the other shoe eventually drops -- and that shoe is about to hit the ground.
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The very mild air mass that moved in Monday evening pushed some temperatures above 50 degrees (10 degrees Celsius) and is being pushed out as I write this by a strong cold front that is marching across the state.
This front is simply the front edge of a much colder air mass and the change will be quite abrupt when it arrives in your area.
First of all, the showers immediately preceding the front could have some very gusty winds -- possibly approaching 40 mph. Once the front passes by, the showers will rapidly diminish, and a more consistent windy condition will develop.
Temperatures will fall sharply, giving us a quick transition from spring to winter. If you are heading out mid-afternoon and not coming back to work or home until this evening, dress for winter and not for how it feels outside right now.
We could see some scattered snow showers Tuesday night, we don’t expect any meaningful accumulation (perhaps a dusting -- less than an inch -- in the thumb part of the state).
Temperatures will drop all the way down into the mid-20s (-4 degrees Celsius) by dawn, so watch for icy spots in areas where water was still on the pavement when the temperature dropped below freezing.
Wind will blow from the west at 15 to 25 mph.
NOTE: If you are traveling to the western side of the state this evening or on Wednesday including on I-94 toward Chicago - keep in mind that some narrow but intense lake effect snow bands will develop.
Not everybody gets them, but conditions are treacherous underneath these bands.
We strongly advise checking the radar on our free Local4Casters app if you are heading west toward Lake Michigan, and drive to avoid them.
Wednesday
We’ll start our Wednesday with mostly cloudy skies, and most of the day should be generally dry.
Any of us could see a flurry or very light snow shower, but the best chance for a snow shower is in Lenawee County if any of the lake effect snow makes it this far east.
It’ll be a breezy day, with highs only in the upper 20s to near 30 degrees (-2 to -1 degree Celsius). Northwest winds at 15 to 25 mph will keep wind chills generally in the mid-teens (-9 degrees Celsius) all day long.
Wednesday’s sunrise is at 8:02 a.m., and Wednesday’s sunset is at 5:19 p.m. Notice the days slowly getting longer? We now have 12 more minutes of daylight than we did on the Dec. 21 winter solstice.
It will be mostly cloudy Wednesday night, with lows in the mid to upper teens (-9 to -7 degrees Celsius).
Rest of week
Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy and not as breezy on Thursday, with highs in the upper 20s (-2 degrees Celsius). It will be partly cloudy Thursday night, with lows in the mid teens (-9 degrees Celsius).
It will be partly cloudy on Friday, with highs near 30 degrees (-1 degree Celsius). Increasing clouds are expected later Friday night, with lows in the low 20s (-6 to -5 degrees Celsius).
Weekend
Tuesday's computer models are consistent with Monday’s models in keeping the next storm system far enough to our south to keep most of the meaningful snow south of us.
There could be some very light snow developing, mainly south of 8 Mile Road, but impacts do not appear to be significant. It’ll be continued cold, with highs in the low 30s (0 degrees Celsius).
Any snow that does make it into the area will diminish Saturday night, with lows in the low 20s (-6 to -5 degrees Celsius).
Partly cloudy on Sunday, with highs in the low to mid-30s (0 to 1 degree Celsius).
On thin ice
No, this isn’t a metaphor: We really are skating on thin ice. Actually, except for the ice at Campus Martius, we shouldn’t be out on the ice at all right now.
The mild weather we’ve had really hasn’t allowed our inland lakes to develop their normal thickness of ice. You’ll start seeing more ice later this week as the colder air settles in, but don’t immediately head out.
Most people don’t realize the thicknesses of ice we need for various activities on frozen lakes, so here’s a little information for you:
- Normal foot traffic: 4 inches
- ATV: 4 to 7 inches
- Car: 8 inches
- Medium truck: 12 to 15 inches
Most of you ice fishers have an auger with you, since you will be carving a hole in the ice to fish through. However, a tape measure should also be a mandatory part of your equipment.
PLEASE check the ice thickness regularly as you head out. If you aren’t sure about the ice thickness, then don’t head out at all.
If the ice below you fails and you end up in the water, your body immediately experiences cold water shock, and you only have about 15 minutes of useful consciousness. Have an ice pick hand tool with you that allows you to grab onto the ice and pull yourself out.
Better yet, have a buddy with you, and don’t walk out right next to each other -- if one of you falls in, the other can then lay down and inch toward you, and extend a rope or belt to help pull you out.
Finally, take the wind into account before heading out. Every winter, the Local 4 newsroom covers stories about people stranded on ice flows that detached from shore due to windy conditions blowing from the shore out toward the center of the lake. Don’t be one of those people.