DETROIT – Well, today’s the day.
I’ve been talking about this storm for a week now, and everything is playing out exactly as expected. The winter storm is rapidly maturing, and generating a variety of weather with it. Heavy snow and strong winds are plaguing folks on the colder northern flank. The ECMWF model output below nicely summarizes the snowfall forecast as the low tracks across the state this afternoon and tonight.
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Meanwhile, south of Michigan where the air is warmer and more unstable, the system’s potent cold front will generate a severe weather outbreak. Storms with damaging wind gusts and even tornadoes are possible. Here is the Storm Prediction Center convective outlook, outlining the severe risk area.
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And here we sit in southeast Michigan without having to worry about either heavy snow or severe storms. Rain will develop by late afternoon, although some of you north of I-69 could possibly see a little sleet or even wet snowflakes before everything changes to rain. A few heavy downpours are possible, and remember that the ground is mostly frozen -- this water won’t soak in -- so runoff could cause some minor flood issues. Rainfall totals tonight could range between one-half and one inch in some spots, which is why I’m concerned.
Temperatures will actually rise to near 50° overnight (10° Celsius for our Canadian friends), then perhaps drop a few degrees right around dawn -- especially for our farther western suburbs. Temps are really tricky because, as of the time I am writing this, it’s in the 60s and 70s (between 16° and 22° Celsius) south of the warm front in parts of Kentucky, Missouri, and Illinois. We won’t get that warm, but a stronger than expected northward push of this warmer air could push our temperatures even higher overnight. By the way, today’s record high of 52° (11° Celsius), and tomorrow’s record high of 54° (12° Celsius) would certainly be in jeopardy if the warmer air succeeds in getting here! South wind at 10 to 20 mph.
Wednesday is kind of interesting (ok, ok, anything involving weather is interesting to me). Once the cold front passes by late at night, a dry slot will work into southeast Michigan -- that will cut off the rain and even break up the clouds. Cold air behind the front will be offset initially by the sunshine, so temps could recover back toward 50° (10° Celsius), before starting to fall during the afternoon once clouds increase again. By late afternoon/early evening, we’ll probably be down around 40° (4° Celsius). Southwest winds will increase during the day to 20 to 30 mph.
Wednesday’s sunrise is at 7:45 a.m., and Wednesday’s sunset is at 5:50 p.m.
Mostly cloudy and breezy Wednesday night, with a sprinkle or flurry possible. Lows in the mid 20s (-3° Celsius).
Mostly cloudy on Thursday, with highs in the mid 30s (1° Celsius).
Mostly cloudy Thursday night, with lows in the low 20s (-5° Celsius).
Partly cloudy on Friday, with highs in the mid 30s (2° Celsius).
Increasing clouds Friday night, with lows in the mid 20s (-4° Celsius).
Cloudy on Saturday with a flurry possible. Highs in the upper 30s (3° Celsius).
Mostly cloudy Saturday night, with lows in the mid 20s (-3° Celsius).
Mostly cloudy on Sunday, with highs near 40° (4° Celsius).
Then get ready for a pretty strong push of cold air Monday through mid-week, with snow or snow showers likely each day, and highs generally in the 20s (-3° to -2° Celsius).